From SUSA (likely voters; 7/14-7/16; 5/25 in parens):
Steve Beshear (D): 59 (62)
Ernie Fletcher (R-inc.): 36 (34)
MoE: ± 4.2%
No comebacks for Ernie yet. Beshear collects the support of 24% of Republicans and 60% of independents, while Fletcher only garners the support of 13% of Democrats (remember: Kentucky has a very wide Democratic voter registration advantage). That’s down from 36% of Republicans after the bitterly divisive Republican primary in May, but up from 52% of indies.
Beshear is still in the driver’s seat with less than four months until election day.
…almost feels like Casey v. Santorum again.
for the sake of comparison.. Bush got 28% in 2004 and Bunning got 18%
actually, in the 06 elections I dont think there was any significant differences in IVR vs Live Response.
The method is becoming less and less important on those types of things. The way the sample is pulled is much more important.
Between Survey USA, which uses automated calls and touch-tone voting, and InsiderAdvantage, which uses live response calls, I trust Insider Advantage polls more. Their poll which showed a 41-38 lead may be an outlier, but the only other polls conducted have been IVR, and don’t have an option for undecided voters.
Beshear still has a huge advantage, and since the incumbent is under 40% and the undecideds will usually break for the challenger, Beshear is in a great position to win. But I don’t believe the margin is that lopsided yet. Most people aren’t paying attention to the race.